今年上半年，国际金价涨幅超过8%。7月9日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的8月黄金期价比前一交易日上涨0.5美元，收于每盎司1400.5美元，涨幅为0.04%。

In the first half of this year, international gold prices rose by more than 8%. On July 9, the most active August gold futures market on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $0.5, or 0.04%, to $1,400.5 an ounce, from the previous day.

分析人士认为，本轮金价上涨，主要缘于世界经济前景不确定导致各国央行减持美元资产和加强储备多元化的意愿增强。此外，多国转入降息通道，也提振了资本市场对黄金的需求。

Analysts believe that the rise in gold prices in this round is mainly due to uncertain world economic prospects leading to increased willingness of central banks to reduce their holdings of US dollar assets and diversify their reserves. In addition, the diversion of many countries into the interest rate reduction channel has also boosted the demand for gold in the capital market.

各国央行一直是黄金市场的主力买家。世界黄金协会数据显示，过去四个季度，各国央行总购金量为715.7吨，创历史新高。其中，今年第一季度，各国央行总购金量同比增长68%。该协会认为，对储备多元化及安全、流动性资产的需求，是全球央行购金的主要动力。

Central banks have been the main buyers of gold markets. According to the World Gold Association, central banks have purchased 715.7 tons of gold in the past four quarters, a record high. Among them, in the first quarter of this year, the total purchases of central banks increased by 68% year-on-year. The Association believes that the demand for diversified reserves, safe and liquid assets is the main driving force for central bank purchases worldwide.

加拿大蒙特利尔银行资本市场公司分析师团队表示，多重宏观逆风因素强化了各国央行从美元资产转向多元化资产的需求，预计今年是央行购金“大年”。

Analysts at Bank of Montreal Capital Markets said that multiple macro-adverse factors have intensified the demand for central banks to diversify their assets from dollar assets, and this year is expected to be the "big year" for central bank purchases.

此外，美联储和欧洲央行近期释放的宽松货币政策信号也利好金价上涨。美联储在上次货币政策例会后声明“将采取适当措施维持美国经济扩张”。欧洲央行行长德拉吉上月也表示，若经济前景没有改善，可能采取额外刺激措施。

In addition, the recent easing of monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank also helped gold prices rise. After the last regular monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve declared that it would take appropriate measures to maintain the expansion of the U.S. economy. ECB President Draghi also said last month that if the economic outlook did not improve, additional stimulus measures might be taken.

世界黄金协会市场情报部门负责人阿利斯泰尔·休伊特表示，大西洋两岸的央行暂停紧缩和潜在的政策宽松将为金价提供支撑。瑞银分析师团队也指出，利率持续下调是支撑金价的重要因素。

Alistair Hewitt, head of market intelligence at the World Gold Association, said the suspension of austerity and potential policy easing by central banks on both sides of the Atlantic would support gold prices. The UBS analyst team also pointed out that a sustained fall in interest rates was an important factor in supporting gold prices.

芝加哥商品交易所预测显示，市场认为美联储在7月底货币政策例会后降息25个基点的概率已经超过95%。在强烈降息预期下，当前黄金市场投资者最关注的是美联储主席鲍威尔10日将在国会众议院金融服务委员会听证会上的发言。

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange forecast shows that the market believes the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points after its regular monetary policy meeting at the end of July has exceeded 95%. In anticipation of a strong interest rate cut, gold market investors are most concerned about the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee hearing on October 10.

徽章咨询公司首席市场分析师钦坦·卡尔纳尼表示，鲍威尔对于利率的表态将决定本月黄金、白银和美元指数的走向。

Chief market analyst Chintan Karnani of Badge Consulting said Powell's position on interest rates would determine the direction of the gold, silver and dollar indices this month.