Jingwei client, May 10 (Xinhua) the central parity rate of RMB against US dollar was 6.4425 on the 10th, up 253 points. The central parity rate was 6.4678 on the previous trading day, and the onshore RMB was 6.4589 on the previous trading day, according to the data of China foreign exchange trading center.

Over the past two months, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has drawn a "heartbeat curve". The dollar index is a key factor. The US dollar index "took off" in late February, rising from the highest level of 90 to more than 93. However, it has "fallen" since April and is now below the 91 level.

According to the data of the State Administration of foreign exchange, as of the end of April 2021, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3198.2 billion US dollars, up 28.2 billion US dollars from the end of March, an increase of 0.89%. Novel coronavirus pneumonia and vaccine progress, major national monetary policy expectations and macroeconomic data have been the main factors affecting the growth of the non US dollar currencies. The price of non US dollar currencies has risen in the international financial market, Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of foreign exchange and spokesman of the State Administration of foreign exchange, said. Foreign exchange reserves are denominated in US dollars. Due to the combined effect of exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, the scale of foreign exchange reserves rose in the current month.

Wang Chunying said that the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is still spreading abroad, and the global economic recovery is still unstable and unbalanced. The international financial market is still facing many uncertainties. However, since the beginning of this year, China's economy has made a good start, new achievements have been made in high-quality development, and the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has been continuously enhanced, which is conducive to the basic stability of the scale of foreign exchange reserves.

Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told Zhongxin Jingwei client that China's economic recovery has achieved remarkable results, the economic boom continues to be in the expansion range, the recent recovery of consumption shows an accelerated trend, strong exports drive the improvement of manufacturing investment, the continuous enhancement of RMB exchange rate elasticity, and RMB assets are more attractive, These positive factors provide support for the stability of the scale of foreign exchange reserves.

For the future trend of RMB exchange rate, the national economic research center of Peking University recently released a report, which predicts that the RMB exchange rate will tend to fluctuate and appreciate in May, with two-way wide fluctuation in the range of 6.45 yuan to 6.60 yuan.

According to the report, the RMB exchange rate in April showed a fluctuating upward trend. The support of economic fundamentals, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the continuous tension between China and foreign countries are the main factors affecting the RMB exchange rate trend this month. It is estimated that in May 2021, with the steady recovery of China's economy, the economic fundamentals will continue to provide certain support for the trend of the RMB. However, as the external environment will continue to be tense, the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. The superposition of COVID-19's prevention and control situation in India is severe, which will cause the RMB exchange rate to be under pressure.

Zheshang securities research report said that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6.5-6.9 in the second half of the year, suggesting that there is relatively greater depreciation pressure. However, the increase of exchange rate volatility is conducive to domestic policy space, and the two-way floating of RMB exchange rate has become the norm, which can better play its role as an automatic macroeconomic and balance of payments stabilizer. At the same time, we will not change our judgment on the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the medium and long term. In the next 8-10 years, the US dollar will decline in a large cycle, and the RMB exchange rate will go out of the trend of deterministic appreciation（ Zhongxin (APP)