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    Slow economic recovery in Central Asian countries

    2021-04-26 | Pageviews: CHANGZHOU FOAN M AND E CORPORATION
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    Recently, several institutions have raised their forecasts for the economic recovery in Central Asia. The world bank has raised Kazakhstan's economic growth forecast for 2021 from 2.5% to 3.2%, and expects to grow 3.5% and 4.3% in the next two years. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan's economy is expected to grow by 4.8 per cent this year and Kyrgyzstan by 3.8 per cent. Other countries in Central Asia are also expected to grow at a more optimistic rate than before, with Tajikistan and Turkmenistan expected to grow at 5.0 per cent and 4.6 per cent this year, respectively.

    The economic situation in Central Asia has gradually improved, thanks to the policies and measures of stabilizing economy and ensuring people's livelihood issued by governments.

    Kazakhstan's official data show that in 2020, the government's total expenditure on supporting the economy and helping people's livelihood will reach 6.3 trillion tenge (about 15 billion US dollars), equivalent to 9% of GDP. In May last year, Kazakhstan set up the National Committee for promoting economic recovery and launched the "package plan for restoring economic growth", including implementing the "employment roadmap", expanding the scale of housing construction, adjusting the personal income tax collection system, strengthening credit support for Industry and commerce, attracting foreign investment, and protecting the rights and interests of enterprises in accordance with the law. Under the framework of the "employment roadmap", the Kazakh government has implemented about 6700 infrastructure projects in 2020, creating jobs for more than 239000 people. In 2021, the government plans to continue to provide employment assistance to 1.3 million people under this framework and strive to reduce the national unemployment rate to 4.9%.

    Since the outbreak, Uzbekistan has invested and supported in energy, agriculture, construction, transportation, health, education and other key fields. According to the statistics of Urumqi Economic Research and reform center, the auto and real estate market in the country is the first to recover, and the auto sales have returned to the pre epidemic level in August 2020. In February, the number of real estate contracts in the country increased by 19.7% year-on-year. In 2021, Uzbekistan's overseas remittance income will increase rapidly, which will become an important driving force for economic recovery.

    Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have also introduced a series of economic stimulus plans, including optimizing the business environment, reducing taxes and fees for enterprises and individuals, providing preferential loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, stabilizing the market prices of important commodities, and carrying out infrastructure construction.

    At present, there is a new round of epidemic situation in parts of Central Asia. Countries in the region have started and accelerated vaccination programs while continuing to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control, and some countries have also actively introduced vaccines from China.

    Experts pointed out that when the economy of Central Asia can fully recover to the pre epidemic level, especially the recovery progress of services, trade and other industries, largely depends on the speed of vaccination. As a whole, the economic recovery in Central Asia is still in the early stage of eliminating the impact of the epidemic, and most countries are still facing long-term structural problems such as the decline of people's consumption ability and the lack of vitality in the service industry.

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